A Better Example

I have one gripe with Harry Potter. Although the series is fascinating, Harry the Hero leaves some to be desired. As the chosen one to defeat Voldemort, he doesn't have to work to achieve success. Sure, at times he believes he needs to, but he never puts forth the effort it would take to really become better or more powerful. His friend Hermione, in contrast, works diligently and long to improve her abilities as a wizard, but there is a sense throughout the story that she, although much, much better than any of her classmates (and one of the best students in decades), will never learn enough or develop enough skill to defeat Voldermort. Only Harry can do that, because only Harry possesses the innate talent necessary. Harry succeeds not because of what he does, but because J.K. Rowling decided that he would, and creates him with an innate quality imbued to him by his parents that will enable him to prevail.

What a self-defeating message! If you are chosen, you can succeed, but if not, no level of effort or work will enable you.

As studies have shown, repeatedly telling a child that he or she is smart or talented sets them up for failure. Why? Because, if their smartness is innate, and nothing which they can influence by practice or effort, then when the inevitable struggle comes, they quit, believing that they've reached the limit of their talent. “I just wasn't smart enough for physics” or “Calculus was okay, but differential equations was beyond me” or maybe “I could memorize anything until confronted with Gray's Anatomy.” Each represents a failure to believe in the power of practice, the power of effort, the power of self.

We need to get away from the hero who achieves success through innateness, and instead demonstrates those qualities that lead to success in the actual world in which we live: Effort, practice, mentoring, honesty, and more practice. Heroes that fill our children's minds with the ideas and ideals that we would pass on as parents, if only we had the gift of storytelling ourselves.

Fortunately, John Flanagan is such an author and parent. He started the “Rangers Apprentice” series for his son Michael, and infuses the story with exactly the sort of messages that I'm advocating. His characters have innate qualities that predispose them to certain activities (Horace has size and strength, Will has grace and control, Jenny an ebullient personality) – but it is the practice and effort each puts in after being selected (at age 15) for their respective training that reveals growing levels of competence. Horace is bullied, and the extra work he does hoping to appease his tormentors naturally leads to higher skill as a future knight (plus, the bullying situation is brought to a neat resolution, as an adult recognizes and steps in to help the students understand that accepting and perpetuating bullying is unequivocally wrong.)

Will is the main protagonist, and undergoes some initial frustrations (and defeats) as he finds that his small size limits him from Battle School, his heart's desire. However, selected by the ranger Halt to be his apprentice, and through Halt's mentoring and lots of practicing (“I know, practice!” grumbles Will at one point), Will's skills improve, and he receives accolades for his earned abilities, not his innate talents. Author Flanagan uses scenes with Will's former wardmates (he is an orphan) to show the satisfaction gained from earned recognition to drive home the point.

Flanagan even manages to weave in traits such as honesty into the story. Will learns that Halt watched him two years previously as he snuck into the kitchen to steal some cakes. Will was caught at that time, and when confronted by the cook, deliberates, and decides to tell the truth. He takes the punishment, and forgets the incident. However, Halt reveals to Will that the moment of honesty two years previously has had an enormous impact:

“I wondered if I shouldn't have lied,” [Will] admitted. Halt shook his head very slowly. “Oh, no, Will. If you'd lied, you never would have become my apprentice.”

The point may be lost on many of the young readers, but then again, maybe not. It never hurts to emphasize that honesty's rewards may not be readily apparent, or that a lack of honesty may take 1 or 3 or 5 years before it returns to haunt you.

The rest of the book delights, too. There are exciting battles, mythical creatures, and the growing back story of a power-hungry antagonist returning for another attempt to conquer the kingdom. Will and his friends are young, and we expect as the series continues, that they will play ever larger roles in defending, not because they are the innately Chosen Few, but because they will be the ones who have invested more effort into developing their skills, and so are the ones who will ultimately be able to rise to the challenge.

I'd much rather see a series like Flanagan's in the hands of our young readers, with heroes like Will and Horace imitated and idolized by our sons (and daughters) than stories with empty, predestined “heroes” like Harry. Through John Flanagan's storytelling, Will's story sets a much better example of how success over challenges can be obtained, and hopefully, a better message that developing one's skills is not an innate process, but one very much determined by effort and attention.

(Flanagan, John. "Ranger's Apprentice, Book One: The Ruins of Gorlan." Puffin Books, 2005.)

Randomness

Last night, the weatherman told me that the next two days would be warmer than 'normal', with temperatures in the mid-nineties. By that, he meant that the temps would be above the average for this time of year. But, it does beg the question: If the temperature on any given day is above (or below) the average, is it therefore abnormal? If we were to get a string of above average days (say, 10 or so), would that also be abnormal, or is that something we should expect periodically?

Your favorite team has made it to the World Series (or Stanley Cup). You believe them to be the better team, although probably only slightly. Is 7 or 9 games enough to ensure that the better team wins the series? If one team sweeps the series 4-0, is that significant?

You family is uniformly tall. Your uncles are all above six feet, and even your aunts are close. Your grandparents are tall, as is your parents. However, you've topped out at 5'9”. Are you an aberration?

Each of these is an example of a distribution. In statistics, the standard distribution is an even curve around the mean, or average value. There are other distributions that are lopsided, with long tails to one side or the other. However, distributions are difficult to spot in our day to day lives: We have to keep records, and analyze those records to see the distributions, and they way they influence our lives.

Such analysis is the subject of Leonard Mlodinow's book: “The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives.” In it, Mlodinow traces the development and understanding of probability and statistics from the early attempts to pinpoint the locations of the stars to recent studies of sports, finance, and medicine. Recognizing random distributions, and recognizing what they imply (and just as importantly, what they don't imply!) is a valuable skill.

The last example (height) demonstrates regression towards the mean – that given a sampling, even if there are outliers, most of the values will tend towards the mean (or average) value. It is actually important that tall people don't beget ever taller progeny: The human population would polarize to the very tall and the very short! However, the average height for a human male is in the 5'9”-5'10” range, and although the mean may be increasing slightly, there will be a greater concentration of people close to that height, and those very tall (or very short) are the outliers, and having them in your family tree is no guarantee of height.

The bad news on the World Series: If your team were 5% better than the other team (which might actually be unlikely in real life, the two best teams are likely even close in ability!); It would take something like 293 games to ensure that the better team won the majority. Is it possible for the lesser team to sweep the series 4-0? Not only possible, but likely, given to closely matched teams. (Think of flipping a penny: If you flip it enough times, you expect that half will be heads, and half tails, but if you flip it just 4 times, there is a reasonable chance that you will get all heads or all tails: 4 or 9 is just not enough flips to get the statistically expected outcome.)

And the weather? The weather, too, exhibits an even distribution about the daily means, both above and below. Where I live, the weather is regularly up to 10 degrees above or below the mean on any given day: Taken as a whole (365 days per year, 30 years worth of measurements, 10950 measurements total), the first standard deviation is 7 or 8 degrees of either side of the mean, indicating that 2/3's of the days are between -8 and +8 of the average. So, a day 5 or 6 degrees above average? Normal. 5 degrees below? Normal. 9 degrees below? Well...less common, but in something as variable as the weather, I'd say still normal.

In fact, the weather is one of those things that bedevils our senses. We have such short memories (and lives) that it is impossible from an experience standpoint to determine if the weather is warming, cooling, drying, or changing in a meaningful way. Given that the weather swings on a yearly basis over 50 degrees (and often over 30 degrees in a single day), has measured extremes 133 degrees apart, and yet exhibits a smooth yearly fluctuation of averages makes it the quintessential random distribution. As such, could any given year experience a (to our senses) long string of above or below average temps? Absolutely. In fact, as Mlodinow points out, it would be surprising if it didn't.

A Small Price

I stood in the shower, washing away three days' worth of dirt and sweat. Three days' of sunscreen and insect repellent. I wished I could just as easily wash away the fatigue and the bruises from an overloaded pack. As I did so, I contemplated why I would treat my body thusly.

Perhaps it was to experience the world as it was before electricity and the automobiles. To experience the quiet that only happens deep in the wilderness, farther away than the day hikers can go. To hear a rushing waterfall as the loudest sound.

It was to enjoy the smell of trees rather than the smells of industry. To watch the weather unfold, first warming, then cooling. To awake to the sounds of light rain striking the tent, and to rise to see the sun reflected on thousands of water droplets clinging to the grasses and trees of the forest.

It was to go on an early morning hike, and be surprised by, and perhaps surprise, a moose going about her business of eating breakfast. To be still, and watch as she decides we're no threat and lies down. To marvel that so large an animal can become virtually invisible lying just beyond that tree, and wonder at how many others we've missed.

Maybe to hike above timberline, and wonder at the stunted plants that grow in the alpine tundra. To see the jagged peaks surrounding the pass, with their patches of sheltered snow and flowers. To go on a hunt for ptarmigan, camouflaged and hard to spot.

Perhaps it was to observe the tenacity of a young fisherman, as he moved back and forth along the banks of the mountain lake, certain that if only he cast from there, he might get more than the nibble he just had.

It was to lie in our sleeping bags on the ground as darkness descended on a clear night, and watch as the stars appeared, the Milky Way unobstructed by pollution, brightly visible here, a surprising band of light crossing the sky. To watch as the first streaks of the Perseid meteors lit up the sky, amazing in their brightness.

It was to spend three days relaxing, and experiencing the world again through the eyes of a 9-year-old. I've become jaded, and unobservant of various things, but every animal, every plant, flower, mold, every jagged rock and every stream crossing are amazing things. Every bird must be identified, or at least guessed at: “Dad, quick! Give me the bird book again! That was a brown bird with a white tail, it will be in the brown section...” To positively identify some “That was a Hairy Woodpecker”, to leave others for another trip.

To hear the songs of birds unfamiliar, and strain to catch a sight of them in the trees. Then, to hear the sounds known, “There's a robin!” To marvel out how a squirrel runs, or a marmot ambles. To glimpse another moose as she angles up a slope.

A chance to spread the imagination about how each fallen tree got that way. To listen as my son wondered that if only that tree, now caught on another two, had instead fallen with more force might it have caused the next to fall, and the next, spreading in a fan to encompass all the forest like dominoes. To talk with him, no distractions, and strengthen the bonds we have.

A tent that needs cleaning and drying, sleeping bags that need to be hung and aired out.

Clothes that need to be washed.

Fatigue and bruises, dirt and sweat, sunscreen and Deet.

They seem like a small price to pay.

A Good Day For A Ride

The former bicycle racer looked outside and thought, "It's a good day for a ride." The early morning sunlight reflected off the mountains, and the air was clean and still, but warm enough.

He hadn't been faithful the last few years - faithful to riding that was, and when he did get out, every ride felt like a first ride, a get re-acquainted ride. Sometimes his bicycle felt like a strange machine, twitching first left, then right, as he tried to recall how to relax and make it work. His pedaling came in fits and bursts, out of sync with his breathing, the bicycle, and the road.

This year, however, had been a little different. Not lots of riding, but more, and more frequently, and the rider and machine were starting to recall the dance they once knew. Coming down a slight grade onto the flat, he allowed himself the big chainring, and started pushing. The power was flowing in a continuous circle, his breathing was deep, steady. He reveled in the old feelings and sounds as the velocity induced headwind began whistling in his ears. "Yeah," he thought, "I can still do this!"

Lost in his exultation, he was taken by surprise as current bike racer pedaled fluidly, inexorably past him. His back flat, his arms relaxed, and his shaven calves pumping like two extra hearts to propel him at speeds long forgotten by former racer.

Former racer wasn't accustomed to being passed, and for an instant, he started increasing his pace, recognizing the implicit challenge of the other rider. Just as quickly, his body reminded him of his infidelity: The mounting burn in his legs, the increasing tempo of his breathing that threatened to spiral out of control. Chastened, he dropped his tempo back to what it had been, allowing the challenge to go unanswered.

"Oh well," he recalled. "Its still a good day for a ride."

A Little Humor

I'm usually serious, but once in a while, it's good to lighten up and laugh at yourself, your friends, and the world (best in that order: Your friends get less angry if you've already been laughing at yourself...)

Unfortunately, I'm not exactly long on comedic talent, however, there are those anonymous individuals who are and are willing to share with us! So, I share with you these funnies to chase away the summer doldrums...Laugh Away! (H/T Matt)

Q: Doctor, I've heard that cardiovascular exercise can prolong life. Is this true?
A: Your heart only good for so many beats, and that it...don't waste on exercise. Everything wear out eventually. Speeding up heart not make you live longer; it like saying you extend life of car by driving faster. Want to live longer? Take nap.

Q: Should I cut down on meat and eat more fruits and vegetables?
A: You must grasp logistical efficiency. What does cow eat? Hay and corn. And what are these? Vegetables. So steak is nothing more than efficient mechanism of delivering vegetables to your system. Need grain? Eat chicken. Beef also good source of field grass (green leafy vegetable). And pork chop can give you 100% of recommended daily allowance of vegetable product.

Q: Should I reduce my alcohol intake?
A: No, not at all. Wine made from fruit. Brandy is distilled wine, that mean they take water out of fruity bit so you get even more of goodness that way. Beer also made of grain. Bottom up!

Q: How can I calculate my body/fat ratio?
A: Well, if you have body and you have fat, your ratio one to one. If you have two bodies, your ratio two to one, etc.

Q: What are some of the advantages of participating in a regular exercise program?
A: Can't think of single one, sorry. My philosophy is: No pain...good!

Q: Aren't fried foods bad for you?
A: YOU NOT LISTENING! Food are fried these day in vegetable oil. In fact, they permeated by it. How could getting more vegetable be bad for you?!?

Q: Will sit-ups help prevent me from getting a little soft around the middle?
A: Definitely not! When you exercise muscle, it get bigger. You should only be doing sit-up if you want bigger stomach.

Q: Is chocolate bad for me?
A: Are you crazy?!? HEL-LO-O!! Cocoa bean! Another vegetable! It best feel-good food around!

Q: Is swimming good for your figure?
A: If swimming good for your figure, explain whale to me..

Q: Is getting in shape important for my lifestyle?
A: Hey! 'Round' a shape!



And remember:
Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well-preserved body, but rather to skid in sideways - Chardonnay in one hand - chocolate in the other - body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming "WOO-HOO, what a ride!!"

AND......

For those of you who watch what you eat, here's the final word on nutrition and health It's a relief to know the truth after all those conflicting nutritional studies.

1. The Japanese eat very little fat
and suffer fewer heart attacks than us.

2. The Mexicans eat a lot of fat
and suffer fewer heart attacks than us.

3. The Chinese drink very little red wine
and suffer fewer heart attacks than us.

4. The Italians drink a lot of red wine
and suffer fewer heart attacks than us.

5. The Germans drink a lot of beer and eat lots of sausages and fats
and suffer fewer heart attacks than us.

CONCLUSION:

Eat and drink what you like.
Speaking English is apparently what kills you.

-- Author Unknown

Light Bulbs, Part 2

In January, I had to replace the halogen light bulbs on one of my vehicles. I opted for the whiter, higher Kelvin pair after reading the packaging and thinking that they would be noticeably brighter. Not that a 100K increase in whiteness would be all that great, but that packaging indicated that they would be 25-30% brighter. Turns out, they measure brightness against a worn out bulb, not a brand new one, so the increase in brightness is slight.

However, I just learned that the lifetime of the higher K bulbs in considerably shorter: Both bulbs are now burned out, after just 6 months!

Guess I'm going back to OEM - at least they last a few years!

What a racket.

Social Networking and Privacy

Social Networking is a new medium, and as such, we are not always certain what to make of it, what potential it holds, for good or ill. My belief is that I should always have the ability to maintain my information in a manner that makes it available to the smallest subset of users, and gives me full control over that subset. Likely, over time, most of us will find that allowing broader access, linking, etc., will provide large benefits, and we will realize that in most (if not all) instances we will not be compromising ourselves in any way. Concurrently, laws to define the use that we can expect of the data that we publish will be written, and we will not find ourselves at a disadvantage to the corporations that want to benefit from the information we publish and the correlations they can draw (correlation to improve their marketing.)

That said, nothing, and I mean nothing, that you publish on the internet is private: If you have placed it on the network, it exists in multiple locations, and if it appears to be worth the effort, it can and will be found. If you don't want your mother , spouse, children, or future spouse to read it, do not publish it.

Which is a danger that we don't consider. Each piece of info that we publish may be innocuous by itself, but taken together, if it places you in the right subset, you can become a target. It is for this very reason that my employer is terrified of Facebook and its cousins - they see only dark alleys filled with intellectual property criminals waiting to pounce; To get the unwary employee to reveal company secrets.

I've seen some pretty powerful graphing tools that can draw correlations across wide swaths of data - so I'm not talking the hypothetical, here. I've also brainstormed with co-workers ways your data could be used to get you to pay more for the products you are purchasing, especially if you use internet coupons. We've also talked about how, taken out of context, what you write or photograph might prove deleterious when applying for a job or volunteer position (since, once again, the media behind the publishing can so easily be altered to make it appear that it hasn't been taken out of context, or make the context uncertain.)

So, I think the lesson here is to think before publishing, and always be a little wary, but on the balance, like everything we do: Get out and do it and enjoy, because paranoia will make you isolated, lonely, and probably bitter.

And, in no way, do those qualities make you a better citizen or member of society.